I was just perusing the Canucks' goaltender's respective records. Here they are from ESPN:

Goalie Statistics
PLAYER	GP	W	L	GAA	TOI	SV	SV%	SHO	TGA	TSA	PIM	ENG
Roberto Luongo	26	13	10	2.12	1531:02	664	.925	4	54	718	0	2
Curtis Sanford	6	4	1	2.67	336:47	152	.910	0	15	167	0	0

You'll notice that Sanford's GAA and SV%, the two gold standards by which most people judge goaltending quality are well behind Luongo's. However, their respective win-loss percentages aren't even close: Sanford is 4-1 in five starts and Luongo is 13-10 in 26 starts, not including 3 shootout losses.

What gives? Well take a look at the goal support that each goaltender typically receives. Leaving aside the 8-2 shellacking that the Flyers gave the Canucks in which both goaltenders played, the Canucks have scored 3.6 goals per game in Sanford's five starts (18 goals total), while the Canucks have only scored 2.52 goals per game when Luongo is in net (61 goals in 25 starts).

Take a closer look at the numbers. Here's Sanford's game log:

2007-2008 Game Log
DATE	OPP	RESULT	GS	MIN	W	L	OTL	GA	GAA	SOG	SV	SV%	ENG	SO
10/10	PHI	L 8-2	0	39	0	0	0	4	6.14	17	13	.765	0	0
10/21	@CLS	W 4-1	1	59	1	0	0	1	1.00	36	35	.972	0	0
11/21	@MIN	W 4-2	1	60	1	0	0	2	2.00	20	18	.900	0	0
12/06	@NSH	W 5-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.00	28	26	.929	0	0
12/10	@LA	L 4-2	1	58	0	1	0	4	4.13	31	27	.871	0	0
12/12	@ANH	W 3-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.01	35	33	.943	0	0

Note that the Canucks have scored less than 3 goals only once while Sanford was in net (again, excluding the Philly game), and he lost that game (letting in some weak goals to boot). In other words, in 80% of Sanford's starts, the Canucks score at least 3 goals and more commonly, score 4 or more.

In contrast, here's Luongo's game log:

2007-2008 Game Log
DATE	OPP	RESULT	GS	MIN	W	L	OTL	GA	GAA	SOG	SV	SV%	ENG	SO
10/05	SJ	L 3-1	1	57	0	1	0	3	3.11	31	28	.903	0	0
10/06	@CGY	W 4-3 (OT)	1	64	1	0	0	3	2.78	29	26	.897	0	0
10/10	PHI	L 8-2	1	19	0	1	0	4	12.06	13	9	.692	0	0
10/12	@EDM	W 5-2	1	60	1	0	0	2	2.00	30	28	.933	0	0
10/13	EDM	W 4-1	1	59	1	0	0	1	1.00	28	27	.964	0	0
10/15	SJ	L 4-2	1	60	0	1	0	4	4.00	34	30	.882	0	0
10/19	LA	L 4-2	1	58	0	1	0	3	3.07	16	13	.813	1	0
10/22	@CAR	L 3-1	1	59	0	1	0	2	2.01	30	28	.933	1	0
10/24	@DET	L 3-2	1	58	0	1	0	3	3.06	39	36	.923	0	0
10/26	@WAS	W 3-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.00	28	26	.929	0	0
10/28	DET	L 3-2	1	58	0	1	0	3	3.09	32	29	.906	0	0
11/01	NSH	L 3-0	1	60	0	1	0	3	3.00	15	12	.800	0	0
11/03	@COL	W 4-3	1	60	1	0	0	3	3.00	32	29	.906	0	0
11/08	@CGY	W 3-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.00	38	36	.947	0	0
11/09	COL	W 2-1 (OT)	1	61	1	0	0	1	0.98	25	24	.960	0	0
11/14	EDM	L 1-0 (SO)	1	65	0	0	1	0	0.00	19	19	1.000	0	1
11/16	MIN	W 6-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.00	22	20	.909	0	0
11/18	CGY	W 4-1	1	60	1	0	0	1	1.00	30	29	.967	0	0
11/20	@EDM	L 5-4 (SO)	1	65	0	0	1	4	3.69	29	25	.862	0	0
11/23	@STL	L 3-1	1	58	0	1	0	3	3.07	29	26	.897	0	0
11/25	CHI	W 2-0	1	59	1	0	0	0	0.00	27	27	1.000	0	1
11/27	ANH	W 4-0	1	60	1	0	0	0	0.00	26	26	1.000	0	1
11/29	CLS	W 2-0	1	59	1	0	0	0	0.00	26	26	1.000	0	1
12/02	@MIN	L 2-1	1	58	0	1	0	2	2.05	30	28	.933	0	0
12/05	@CHI	W 3-2	1	59	1	0	0	2	2.00	27	25	.926	0	0
12/08	PIT	L 2-1 (SO)	1	65	0	0	1	1	0.92	33	32	.970	0	0

In contrast, excluding the Philly game in which both played, the Canucks have failed to score 3 goals no less than 14 times in Luongo's 25 starts. Of those 14 games, he's 2-9 in regulation, and 1-2 in overtime/shootouts. The two wins were both shutouts by Luongo. In no less than 7 of those losses (including OT/shootout losses), the Canucks managed only 1 goal or less. In contrast, the Canucks have never failed to manage at least 2 goals in any of Sanford's starts, including his one loss.

What does this mean? Probably not much. But I do think Luongo has a case should he ever decide to sue his teammates (especially the forwards) for lack of (goal) support.

I looked around the various hockey websites by the main media outlets to see how outsiders viewed the Canucks. The power rankings run on a weekly basis by the usual suspects is generally a good gauge of the respect that the Canucks have earned around the league.

Here are where some websites with the Canucks' ranking and what they have to say about the team:

ESPN:

13 (13)

Canucks

14-10-2

Roberto Luongo posts three straight shutouts over a 10-day span before the Canucks fall in a tough one vs. Minnesota.

Sports Illustrated:

9

11

Vancouver Canucks (14-10-2) Before Sunday's loss to the Wild, they had won three straight. Let me clarify: Roberto Luongo won three straight -- with three consecutive shutouts that set personal and franchise records. Bobby Lu's impressive run helped Vancouver finish the month on a 9-1-2 run that put them just two points behind Minny in the Northwest. Last Week: 2-1-0

Fox Sports:

12

Canucks

13

(+1)

12/24

(.577) Roberto Luongo was in a zone last week. The Vancouver netminder posted back-to-back shutouts last week and lost a 2-1 heart-breaker to the Wild, helping his team move up one place in the rankings this week. Team: Home | Stats | Fantasy

TSN: (5th this week, 16th last week)

The Canucks are 9-2-2 in the last 13 games, a span during which Roberto Luongo has played 12 games and posted a 1.60 goals against average and .940 save percentage. In the interest of equal time for the offence, though we can note that Henrik Sedin led the team in November with 17 points and a plus-10 rating in 13 games. Key Injuries: D Kevin Bieksa (calf).

TSN, as you'd expect, has noticed the Canucks' recent play and ranked the Canucks accordingly. They've rocketed up to fifth in their latest rankings. However, it appears that the American media outlets have yet to catch on to what is happening out west. That's not surprising if you've ever lived east of the Mississippi. I lived in Indiana for 5 years and saw about three or four games a year. TSN has the advantage of having a strong incentive to pay extra attention to the Canadian franchises, even if they are way out of the time zone.

Out of sight, out of mind, as they say.

Sorry I haven't posted in an age. I'll try to post more regularly (I'm talking once or twice a week).


The Canucks' resurgence has coincided with a re-commitment to team defense, especially by the forwards, and the re-birth of Naslund's scoring prowess. Something similar happened last year, if you'll remember. Just as the Canucks went on their post-Christmas tear, Naslund, starting on Dec. 27th against Calgary started a 27 points in 24 game streak. Of those 24 games, the Canucks only lost 3 games in regulation time.

Similarly in the past 9 games, Naslund has scored 12 points and the Canucks have gone 6-2-1 and have climbed right back into the division title race. I'm quite confident that we are now seeing the real Canucks, but are we seeing the real Naslund? Last year, he really tailed off in the stretch, scoring 9 pts in the last 21 games (only 4 goals).

The good news is that it didn't hurt the Canucks much as they still went 13-5-3 in those games, though it should be noted that Naslund almost went scoreless in both the regulation and OT losses (he had 1 goal in those 8 games). If he had continued his scoring streak, the Canucks would have been even better than they were down the stretch.

On this basis, I don't think the Canucks' regular season success this year hinges on Naslund continuing his torrid pace, though it would make things a lot easier of course.

One glimmer of hope that this isn't just a hot streak is Naslund's goal-scoring. During last year's scoring streak, Naslund only had 8 goals in those 24 games. Aside from short bursts (e.g., he had 4 goals in a three game burst once) he hasn't put together such a lengthy string of games where he not only put the puck in the net with such regularity (7 goals in 9 games) but he also never looked as consistently dangerous as he does right now.

A note of caution is in order, however. This is a 34 year old player we're talking about. And don't look now, but he's only scored 1 goal in the last 5 games. On balance, I believe that this rebirth will be relatively short-lived and will only last as long as he stays on the Sedin line.

However, as he showed last year, Naslund still has the ability to go an extended period where he's quite productive offensively and can more or less pull his own weight (for short periods!) as far as earning that hefty salary is concerned (27 pts in 24 games works out to 92 pts over a full season, which is about the minimum you'd expect from a $6M player).

So what can you learn from last night’s game……pretty much nothing.  It was a weird game.  The referees were just as complicit as the Canucks in deflating and demoralizing the Ducks.  This game is no indication that we could win a 7 game playoff series with them.  It was not a game to grade the team but a good time where you can enjoy the misery of others – Schadenfreude. 

That being said, Luongo was his customary brilliant self.  Kesler looked like a man possessed who has left his hip injury far behind him.  Naslund’s goal was reminiscent of his former self when he had that snapshot/howitzer.  I did secretly wish that someone insignificant like Cowan would take a nasty cheap shot to Pronger .  It’s probably best it didn’t happen because I’m sure Parros (the ugliest man in hockey) would have gone after the Swedish Touch line.  At any  rate, there were a few times that I thought there would be some ugliness but cooler heads did prevail and the linesman did jump in pretty quickly in most of the altercations.

 I was in Vancouver this weekend for the US Thanksgiving Holiday.  I forgot that it was Grey Cup Weekend and I thought I’d watch just a bit of it for old times sake.  I quickly realized that I have been away from the CFL game way too long.  I didn’t realize that Kent Austin was no longer the QB for the Rough Riders and is now the coach.  I didn’t realize that that Kerry Joesph was no longer playing safety (for the Seahawks) and is now a QB.  When did all this happen?  It’s also surprising that a team not named the Argos, Lions, Eskimos and Alouettes weren’t in the Grey Cup.  Boy, things have really changed over the years. 

That being said, The Grey Cup is Championship Non-Grata to me.  You see, I’ve been to the pinnacle of sports – The Super Bowl (XL).  There is nothing like the fanfare and hype of a Super Bowl.  There are parties, the media and the game.  Heck, even the commercials are exciting to watch.  It’s better than being inundated by formulaic ED Pill commercials where an older couple fake some sort of problem so that they can get away from their friends to get their groove on.  “Hey honey, I’m gonna fake a knee injury at the end of the sixth end because I’m stiffer than the broomstick in my hand.”  Where is the Budweiser or Go Daddy commercial when you need it?

In fact, all championships won’t equal the time I had at the SuperBowl in Detroit (even with the referees jobbing us) except for the one championship which has eluded us for much too long.  THE STANLEY CUP!!!  May the hockey gods be kind to us soon!!!

P.S.  I know that I haven’t written anything in a long time.  Along with my regular job, I also own a business which has taken off in recent weeks.  I hope to dedicate more time to the blog for the rest of the hockey season.

Several weeks back I wrote this:

This is a list of the final receiving stats. Notice who ended up on top:

Here's a writeup on Slam detailing Simon's great second half, as well as a few other tidbits. It's too bad Paris Jackson didn't get the 38 yards he needed to hit the millenium mark.

It looks like the starting job for the playoffs is Jarious Jackson's job to lose, as it should be. Pierce is hurt, and Dickenson, though he's playing fine, hasn't shown that he's willing to stand in there till the last second and take a hit, which he was well known for (and what got him into the mess he's in in the first place). That tells me he isn't really over the psychological effects of the hits he's taken. You can also see the looks on the faces of his own linemen when someone blows a blocking assignment with him back there, that they're worried about him. That's not a good situation. Dickenson should only be used in an emergency situation.

Buono is going to have quite a lot to sort out with his QB situation this off season, especially if JJ leads the Lions to a Grey Cup. It's complicated by the fact that Dickenson is still the best QB of the bunch, but is also the oldest, and the most fragile. Pierce is the youngest, but he's also shown a penchant for getting hurt, which is not what you want to see in your starting QB. Finally, Jackson, at 30, is already getting up there in age, and is also the least experienced.

Buono needs to find a way to keep two of the three happy for as long as possible. This Lions team could be looking at a late 70s/early-80s Eskimos type of dynasty that really can only be sunk (personnel wise) by a QB problem.

And finally think of this: Dickenson lead the Lions to a championship last year. If Jackson leads them to a Grey Cup win this year, it's not unlikely that Buck Pierce will lead the Lions to a Grey Cup win somewhere down the line either (maybe even next year, who knows?). Wouldn't that be a remarkable trifecta?

At any rate, if the Lions win the Cup this year, I think it's pretty clear that Lions fans will look back on this era in later years as the absolute golden age of CFL football in this city.

Buono is an absolute genius. How did Calgary let him get away?

Here's the chart showing the penalty kill information. There was one PP goal scored against the Canucks with the net empty and I've dropped that particular goal from the chart.



If you're wondering what all the abbreviations mean, check out the post immediately below.

As you can see, the Canucks have allowed 12 PP goals against. The biggest culprits appear to be Willie Mitchell (#8) and Ryan Kesler (#17), who have both been on the ice for 9 goals against each while "killing" penalties. It probably hasn't helped Mitchell that he's had 3 different partners.

As for Kesler, the discouraging thing is that the pattern doesn't follow the even strength goals against where they were bunched up early in the season. The PP goals against are spread rather evenly throughout the 12 games.

For 8 of the nine goals, Kesler and Mitchell were on the ice together (one of them was a 5 on 3). In fact, Kesler and Mitchell have been on the ice for each of the last 5 PP goals scored against the Canucks. Now clearly, Mitchell and and Kesler are part of the #1 killing unit, probably out against the best players on the opposing team, but that was also true last year and the Canucks had the best PK unit in the league.

If the Canucks are to get back to their winning ways, the PK is the single biggest issue on the team. Right now, the PP is 8th in the league. The even strength scoring is poor, but to expect consistent scoring form this bunch is like trying to squeeze blood out of a stone. It ain't gonna happen.

What we do know is possible, is for the Canucks to play better defensively, starting with the PK. Jan Bulis can't have been that valuable to the PK unit could he? This team should still be in the top 5 PK wise.

Clearly for that to happen, Willie Mitchell and Ryan Kesler will have to do much better.

The Canucks' season is 12 games in and one thing that is crystal clear is that they stink defensively which is hugely disappointing since they appeared to have gathered a really solid defense corps to play in front of the best goalie in hockey.

The Canucks are currently 17th in league scoring which is not great but for this group, about the best you can realistically expect. Goal scoring is not really a problem right now. They could use a few extra even strength goals but at the same time, their power play has been quite effective (8th in the league so far) so I don't think Canucks' fans can really complain based on what we saw last year out of this crew. They are what they are.

However, defensively, the Canucks rank 18th in goals against which is a far cry from the top 5 defense of last year. They are letting in an average of 3.08 goals against per game. The main culprit has been the Canucks' penalty killing that has plummeted from the very best last year to a current ranking of 22nd overall. However, their even strength defense is also suffering. Today I'll focus on even strength defense with a post to come on their penalty kill.

Here's a chart that keeps track of all the even strength goals that have been scored against the Canucks:



The categories should be more or less self explanatory. The numbers in the final 7 rows refer to jersey numbers.
So far, the Canucks have let in 21 even strength goals in 12 games. That's not horrible, but it's not as good as it should be for a defensively minded squad.

Of the Canucks big three on D (not including Salo (#6) since he hasn't played much), Bieksa (#3) has been on the ice for 11 goals against, Mitchell (#8) for 9 and Ohlund (#2) for 5. Because Mitchell and Bieksa are the only top pairing intact, they have quite obviously been on the ice quite a bit together against the other teams' top forwards. Last year they did an excellent job of shutting teams down. They haven't hit their stride yet this year.

To be fair, however, with Salo absent, it has really screwed up the pairings and put a lot of stress on Mitchell and Bieksa. Bieksa appears to be going through a bit of a sophomore slump as he tries to live up to last year's standards by doing too much this year. He'll eventually settle down, as will Mitchell. I'm not really too worried about it.

I'm assuming Ohlund hasn't been out against the top forward line on a regular basis since his regular partner is out. With the amount of ice-time Ohlund typically logs, 5 goals against even strength seems about right, though I have noticed him struggle a bit at times.

As for centers, who are defensively important because they have down low responsibilities, Kesler (#17) really struggled out of the gate. He was on the ice for an awful lot of goals against early on (5 out of the first 6 even strength goals against). He has since settled down and has been quite excellent at even strength (only 1 even strength goal against).

In the next couple of days, I'll have a post on the penalty killing. Let me warn you. It ain't pretty.

With the demotion of Shannon and now Raymond, the Canucks offseason experiment with a youth movement up front to inject some offense appears to be over, at least for now. With Rypien taking their place, it looks as if AV wants the Canucks to get back to what was so successful for the Canucks last year, and that is defensive hockey.

The idea of having young speedsters like Shannon and Raymond on the team was theoretically sound, providing they could play (Shannon could certainly score, while Raymond was rather invisible, though that was partially due to a lack of playing time), was to have a team that was defensively sound but add some offense to the mix. Certainly that was the basic line that I've been pushing this entire off-season. Well, the team bolstered the defense corps with the addition of Aaron Miller and then Mike Weaver, and... we've taken a giant step backwards.

It's now clear I along with many other fans (and including the Canucks' braintrust) were wrong. It's time to retrench. The Canucks have allowed 21 goals in their first 6 games for an average of 3.5 goals against per game. That's awful, especially for a team that has possibly the best back end (including the top six defensemen and starting goalie) in the NHL on paper. The problem appears to be that the Canucks haven't rekindled the passion for defense that they had last year.

A cautionary example for the Canucks is the Calgary Flames. Before the lockout they had an identity as a very tough defensive squad that played tight checking hockey in front of an elite goaltender, who was offensively challenged, but had one scoring line they could more or less count on throughout the year. Sound familiar?

Well, after years and years of complaints about the lack of offense being the Flames' stumbling block, they added significant scoring punch up front without appreciably losing much talent on the backend, so they should be better, right? Uh, that would be a no. They did end up with the 7th best goal total in the league last year and ended up fighting for their playoff lives up to the end of the season with one of the most talented rosters in the league last year (they were 27th in scoring the year before when they were one of the best regular season teams in the NHL). The problem was that they lost their identity as a team and seemed lost for much of the season. They became an easy team to play against, as the Canucks can attest.

The same thing appears to be happening to the Canucks. For good or ill, the Canucks don't have the personnel for more than one scoring line that can be counted on game in and game out (though Naslund and Morrison are showing signs of life). One line teams can be successful in the NHL, though they seldom win a Stanley Cup. But first things first. The regular season comes before the playoffs, and as the Oilers can attest, making the playoffs is not guaranteed, regardless of how well you played the year before.

The Canucks need to get back to what made them successful last season and let the offensive chips fall where they may. A lot of Canucks had uncharacteristically low scoring totals last year. Some of that was undoubtedly due to the system employed, which limited scoring chances, and some of it was due to declining ability due to age and wear and tear.

However, there's no reason to believe that at least some of them won't bounce back and have decent scoring seasons. The last half of the regular season, the Canucks were in the middle of the pack in scoring. If the Canucks can somehow stay in that range over the long haul this season (they currently rank 13th in scoring), that will be more than sufficient for an outstanding season, as long as they get back to defensive hockey.



I've believed for a long time that the Canucks' can't realistically be considered a cup contender this year. The Canucks are a darkhorse that, if everything breaks just right, they could conceivably win a Stanley Cup (like Montreal did in 1993, behind the stellar play of another outstanding goaltender in Patrick Roy). There's too much salary tied up in unproductive forwards (Naslund, Morrison, and to a lesser extent, Matt Cooke), and no young [read cheap] forwards scoring at a rate way above their pay scale (like Anaheim, Carolina and Tampa Bay have in the years in which they won the Cup).

The good news is, that help is on the way. Hansen, Raymond and Shannon show promise, though they are at least a year away from being impact forwards. Also, the Canucks will have oodles of cap room next year to sign a marquee forward. The bad news is that the list of free agent forwards is shrinking as teams are learning from the example of Buffalo to sign their stars early or risk loosing them to a team that is willing to overpay later. However it may be possible for Nonis to swing a trade.